MRA Building Market Reports’ latest quarterly update on the general builders’ merchant market suggests that although overall market confidence levels haven’t improved, 41% of merchant branches expect their own sales to increase in Q1 compared with sales over the same period in 2025.
While around a quarter expected sales to fall in Q1, this gives a net figure of +15% expecting their sales to increase. Furthermore, this was a major improvement on expectations recorded for Q4, when the net was -1%.
National or regional merchant branches have higher sales expectations and are more confident in the market than merchants with 1-2 branches. The survey also found that merchant branches in the North and the Midlands had higher expectations than those in the South.
Market confidence
In contrast to sentiment on their own businesses, merchants’ confidence in the market was poor in Q4 with no improvement recorded in Q1 2026. A net -15% of merchants were less confident compared to the same period in 2025. Most merchants are therefore less confident in the market now than they were last year.
Of those that were less confident, the largest share said it was due to a general lack of demand and low footfall in the branch. The weather and the economic and political situation were also common themes in the comment section.
Anna Eriksson of MRA Reports commented: “In terms of the outlook for the market, demand remains weak, and Q4 2025 was disappointing for many merchants. We hoped that confidence would build as interest rates and inflation approached more normal levels, but the year started with new tariffs and a war in the Middle East, creating more uncertainty around material, energy and fuel prices, as well as a risk of supply chain disruption.
“However, though merchants’ confidence in the market is low, their sales expectations and confidence in the performance of their own business tell a different story. Some businesses are clearly doing well despite the challenging climate; some have even continued to expand in Q1.”
Anna continued: “Other than that, there are no obvious signs of a major uplift in activity in the short term, but we expect RMI work to start to recover this year and are optimistic for the longer term as more newbuild projects stuck in the pipeline are given the go-ahead.”
Aside from a market review, updated forecasts and survey results, the report contains lots of vivid comments and thoughts on the market by merchant branch managers, delivering real depth and insight into today’s merchant market.
Main image (top): Sales performance Q4 2025 and expectations Q1 2026
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Providing an analysis of both market sentiment and the performance of merchant’s own businesses, MRA Building Market Reports provides regularly updated quarterly forecasts in the context of changing market events and new figures released in the past three months, as well as merchants’ responses to MRA’s quarterly sentiment survey of builders’ merchant branches.
