Figures released by the Builders Merchants Federation in the Plumbing & Heating Merchant Index (PHMI) for the final quarter of 2024 “indicate growing stability in the market, which may be a precursor to positive growth in 2025.”
Considering Quarter 4 2024 v Quarter 4 2023, total value sales in the three months October to December 2024 were virtually flat (-0.2%), compared with the final three months of 2023. Volume sales were up by +5.1% but prices were -5.1% lower. There was one more trading day in Q4 2024. Like-for-like sales, which take trading day differences into account, were down by -1.9%.
Regarding Quarter 4 2024 v Quarter 3 2024, total value sales in Q3 2024 were shown to be +7.0% higher compared with the previous three months, July to October 2024. However, this was driven by price as volume sales fell by -2.6% while prices were +9.9% higher.
With three more trading days in the third quarter, like-for-like sales were -0.8% lower than the second quarter of the year.
Looking across the full year (January – December 2024 v January – December 2023), total value sales in 2024 were down -1.2% compared with 2023. Volume sales were up by +2.2%, but prices were down by -3.3%. With three more trading days during the latest period, like-for-like sales were -2.4% lower.
Mike Rigby, MD of MRA Research which produces the report, commented: “For all the Government’s rhetoric about building houses and getting Britain back on track for growth, 2024 fizzled out with a pretty lacklustre Q4 which left specialist Plumbing & Heating Merchants a few percentage points behind where they were this time last year.
“The latest GB construction data from ONS shows a similar picture for the construction industry, with a marginal increase (+0.5%) in output in Q4 despite a -0.2% fall in December, and overall a modest +0.4% improvement in output for 2024 compared to 2023. Nothing to write home about.”
Mike continued: “The general malaise about the economy and prospects for the future is being felt by consumers too. The latest Consumer Confidence Index from NIQ GfK shows a drop in all metrics at the turn of the year with the biggest drops being to people’s perception of the general economic situation over the next 12 months (-8). January’s overall index fell -5 points to -22 – the lowest it has been in over a year.
“Turning all those frowns upside down is going to take some doing. However, for the plumbing and heating merchants, there are some very promising plans which could be rolled out in 2025 to boost and diversify trade although these may not yet be ‘oven ready’. The Future Homes Standard comes into force in 2025 (date still TBC) and is set to bring with it a raft of demand for low and zero carbon products, then there’s the £3.4 billion investment to upgrade 300,000+ homes through the Warm Homes Plan in 2025-26 which includes the Boiler Upgrade Scheme and planning reforms to boost heat pump uptake.”
Mike concluded: “With the death knell expected for gas boilers to be announced later this year too, this could be a year of transition for the heating and plumbing industry and its supply chain. Those who stay agile in such a changing landscape will undoubtedly reap the rewards.”
The Plumbing & Heating Merchant Index (PHMI) is the first to analyse point of sales data collated from specialist plumbing & heating merchants with combined annual sales of £3bn (including City Plumbing Supplies, James Hargreaves Plumbing Depot, Plumbfix, PTS, Williams & Co, and Wolseley), to chart their performance month-to-month. Based on data from NiQ GfK’s Plumbing & Heating Merchant Panel, which represents over 70% of the market by value, the report provides reliable data and a platform and voice for the industry, as well as for leading plumbing & heating brands.
It is produced by MRA Research for the Builders Merchants Federation. There is no overlap or double counting between PHMI and the Builders Merchants Building Index (BMBI) sales data.
